by Marinus Jan Marijs 

“A crime mystery; tales of the unexpected”: In mid-1990’s, a revolution took place which would have an enormous influence on society. From about 1994/1995 in many countries the crime rate suddenly went drastically down. In the next two decades the Crime rate was falling fast: “The number of Murders went down. Violent crime generally went down. Property crime went down.
In fact, almost every category of criminality that one could think of is declining” (Andrew Rawnsley). Not only were violent crime rates steadily declining over the last 20 years, the cumulative decline was huge, a decline of 50 to 70% in the last 20 years
(1995 → 2015). This was called the “the great American crime decline”, but this revolutionary change was by no means limited to America, it was a global phenomenon.

The crime decline was totally unexpected: “No one predicted crime would fall during the 1990s, in part because the crime rate had been steadily rising since the mid-1980s. The crime decline opposed the preceding trend and came as a great surprise to many because it clashed with a cultural milieu that came to expect rising crime.”

”The 1990s crime decline (in both personal and property crime) was so sharp, steep, widespread and so unexpected that by 2000, most criminologists were predicting that an increase was all but inevitable. Instead, after a brief pause, the crime fall again picked up steam, extending the longest and steepest crime decrease, undoing much of the recent history of escalating high crime rates in the United States. However despite the very solid data that is available, after 20 years the public seems unaware of this massive change.”

“Despite national attention to the issue of firearm violence, most Americans are unaware that gun crime is lower today than it was two decades ago. According to a new Pew Research Center survey, today 56% of Americans believe gun crime is higher than 20 years ago and only 12% think it is lower.”

In America the National rates of gun homicide and other violent gun crimes are strikingly lower in 2015 than during their peak in the mid-1990s, paralleling a general decline in violent crime, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data, which shows a long-term trend.

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades (source: Pew Research Center).

An overview:

Firearm homicide deaths (U.S.): 1993 – 2010    7.0 → 3.6 = 49% ↓

All non-fatal violent firearm crime (U.S.): 1994 – 2011  725.3 → 181.5 = 75% ↓

All non-fatal violent crime (U.S.): 1994 – 2011    7,967.3 → 2,254.2 = 72% ↓

Aggravated assault (U.S.): 1994 – 2011  = 75% ↓
Robbery (U.S.): 1994 – 2011  = 70% ↓

Non-fatal firearm crimes are defined throughout this section as aggravated assault, robbery and sex crimes in which the victim saw a weapon. Aggravated assault and robbery are the main components of non-fatal firearm crime; there are too few sex crimes reported to analyse annual trends reliably.

Over the 1993-2011 period, the victimization rate for aggravated assault with firearms declined 75% and the rate for robbery with firearms declined 70%.

The rate for both gun crimes displayed the same general pattern of large declines in the 1990s. From 2000 to 2011, rates for aggravated assault declined overall.

Over the past two decades, the rate of non-fatal violent firearm crime victimizations among Americans ages 12 and older was highest in the early 1990s, and fell sharply (63% ↓) from 1993 through 2000, according to analyses of data from the National Crime Victimization Survey.

The rate of property crimes—burglary, motor vehicle theft and theft (U.S.) — also declined from 1993 to 2011, by 61% ↓.
The rate for these types of crimes was 351.8 per 100,000 people ages 12 and older in 1993, 190.4 in 2000 and 138.7 in 2011.

Age Groups

As with gun homicides, young adults are at higher risk than older adults of being the victim of a non-fatal gun crime.

Two decades ago, young adults ages 18 to 24 were more likely than any other age group (among the population ages 12 and older in the victimization survey) to be a victim of non-fatal firearm crime.
But the victimization rate of 18- to 24-year-olds (U.S.) declined 80%↓ from 1993 to 2011, compared with the 75%↓ overall decline in non-fatal firearm victimization during those years.

In “The World Is Not Falling Apart” by Steven Pinker and Andrew Mack:

“Violence Against Children. A similar story can be told about children. The incessant media reports of school shootings, abductions, bullying, cyberbullying, sexting, date rape, and sexual and physical abuse make it seem as if children are living in increasingly perilous times. But the data say otherwise: Kids are undoubtedly safer than they were in the past. In a review of the literature on violence against children in the United States published earlier this year, the sociologist David Finkelhor and his colleagues reported, “Of 50 trends in exposure examined, there were 27 significant declines and no significant increases between 2003 and 2011. Declines were particularly large for assault victimization, bullying, and sexual victimization

Violent victimisation at school from 1992 – 890  to  2012 – 250 = 72%↓
Physical abuse of children        from 1992 – 360  to  2012 – 160 = 56%↓
Sexual abuse of children           from 1992 – 220  to  2012 –   80 = 64%↓  

“Similar trends are seen in other industrialized countries, and international declarations have made the reduction of violence against children a global concern.”

• According to “Have Sexual Abuse and Physical Abuse Declined Since the 1990s?” an article released by the Crimes Against Children Research Center in 2012: ¹⁹

• There was a 56% decline in physical abuse and a 62% decline in sexual abuse from 1992 to 2010.
• Despite some scepticism of reporting methods by various agencies, declines in child physical and sexual abuse since the 1990s, as reported to National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS), reflect a true decline in prevalence.

The decline in sexual abuse in NCANDS was consistent with other data sources.

Finkelhor, D., and L. Jones, “Have Sexual Abuse and Physical Abuse Declined Since the 1990s?” Crimes Against Children Research Center, University of New Hampshire. (November 1, 2012)

FBI Chart of Crime Rate, from 1990-2013

Crime Rate in the United States, 1980–2013 (consistently going down):

Violent crimes are offenses of murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault..

Year	Violent crime1	Prop- erty crime2	Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter	Forcible rape	Robbery	Aggra- vated assault	Burglary	Larceny- theft	Motor vehicle theft
1980	596.6	5,353.3	10.2	36.8	251.1	298.5	1,684.1	3,167.0	502.2
1985	556.6	4,650.5	8.0	37.1	208.5	302.9	1,287.3	2,901.2	462.0
1990	731.8	5,088.5	9.4	41.2	257.0	424.1	1,235.9	3,194.8	657.8
1995	684.6	4,591.3	8.2	37.1	220.9	418.3	987.1	3,043.8	560.4
2000	506.1	3,617.9	5.5	32.0	144.9	323.6	728.4	2,475.3	414.2
2005	490.5	3,535.4	5.9	32.2	150.8	301.6	750.2	2,342.6	442.7
2010	404.5	2,945.9	4.8	27.7	119.3	252.8	701	2,005.8	239.1
2012	386.9	2,859.2	4.7	26.9	112.9	242.3	679.2	1,959.3	229.7
2013	367.9	2,730.7	4.5	25.2	109.1	229.1	610.0	1,899.4	221.3

1. Violent crimes are offenses of murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.
2. Property crimes are offenses of burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Data are not included for the property crime of arson.

Source: Crime in the United States, FBI, Uniform Crime Reports.

Here below the years, numbers and percentages  ↓

The rapid and consistent decline in U.S. crime rates from 1990  to  2013:
Violent crime 1990–731.8       2013–367.9 = Down 50%↓
Property crime 1990–5088.5       2013–2730.7 = Down 46%↓
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter 1990 –9.4       2013–4.5 = Down 52%↓
Forcible rape 1990 –41.2       2013–25.2 = Down 39%↓
Robbery 1990 –257.0       2013– 109.1 = Down 58%↓
Aggravated assault 1990 –424.1       2013–229. = Down 46%↓
Burglary 1990 –1235.9       2013–610.0 = Down 51%↓
Larceny- theft 1990 –3194.8        2013–1899.4 = Down 41%↓
Motor vehicle theft 1990 –657.8       2013–221.3 = Down 66%↓

Decline in Car Thefts in New York City 

New York City had 2,000 auto thefts for every 100,000 residents in 1990. In 2013, there were just 88 per 100,000 residents. In 1990, the city had 147,000 reported auto thefts, one for every 50 residents; in 2013, there were just 7,400, or one per 1,100. That’s a drop of 95%↓ in the rate of car theft. Source NYPD; FBI The national decline in Car Thefts in that period was 62%↓

The rapid and mostly unexplained decline in crime rates began in 1994.
Decline in violent crime rates (U.S.): 1994 – 2010     51.2 →15.0 = 71%↓

Homicide and nonfatal violent crimes in the workplace declined

WASHINGTON – More than 572,000 nonfatal violent crimes — rape, robbery, or assault— in the US occurred against persons age 16 or older while they were at work or on duty in 2009, according to a Justice Department Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) newly released publication, Workplace Violence, 1993-2009. This is a level of nonfatal violent crime that is 72%↓ of the 2.1 million nonfatal violent crimes that occurred at the workplace in 1993.

Along with the decline in nonfatal workplace violence, the number of homicides in the workplace decreased by 51%↓ from a high of 1,068 homicides in 1993 to 521 homicides in 2009.
Bureau of Justice Statistics Tuesday, March 29, 2011 HTTPS://WWW.BJS.GOV/

 

Serious intimate partner violence against females declined 72 percent from 1994 to 2011

WASHINGTON – From 1994 to 2011, the rate of serious intimate partner violence in the US, such as rape, sexual assault, robbery or aggravated assault, declined 72%↓ for females, the Justice Department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) announced today. During the same time, the percentage of female intimate partner victims who were physically attacked, attacked with a weapon, injured or required medical treatment remained relatively stable.

Nonfatal intimate partner violence includes serious violence and simple assault committed by an offender who is the victim’s current or former spouse, boyfriend or girlfriend. The severity of intimate partner violence is measured by the type of violent crime, type of physical attack, whether the victim was threatened before the attack, presence of a weapon, victim injury and medical treatment. Estimates of nonfatal violence are based on data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, which collects self-reported information from victims of crime.

Bureau of Justice Statistics Thursday, November 21,2013 HTTPS://WWW.BJS.GOV/

 

Alcohol consumption in the U.S.

Drinking by underage persons in the U.S.(ages 12 to 20) has declined. Current alcohol use by this age group declined from 28.8 to 22.7 percent between 2002 and 2013, which is a decline of 21%↓, while binge drinking declined from 19.3 to 14.2 percent, which is a decline of 26%↓ and the rate of heavy drinking went from 6.2 to 3.7 percent, which is a decline of 40%↓. Source: National Institute on Drug Abuse; National Institutes of Health; U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Recent teenage alcohol use in the U.S. has declined, most significantly among younger teens

Teen alcohol use in the U.S. by grade

Source: Monitoring the Future Survey, 2011.

OTHER COUNTRIES: 

Canada

Attempted murder   1992 – 3.7        2014 – 1.7 = 54%↓
Homicide                 1992 – 2.7        2014 – 1.4 = 48%↓   

Breaking and entering   1991 – 1450        2014 – 430 = 70%↓
Motor vehicle theft        1996 –  620        2014 – 210  = 66%↓  

The sharp drops in Canada’s homicide and other crime has generally been remarkably similar to that in the US

BRITAIN:

Crime continues to fall strongly

From: The Guardian 28 Apr. 2013 –
by Andrew Rawnsley: 

“Here is some good news for nearly everyone. Crime is falling. Murder is down. Violent crime generally is down. Property crime is down. In fact, almost every category of criminality that you can think of is declining.
Here is the even better news. This is not a blip. The downward trend is now very well established and can be traced back over many years.
And here is the funniest bit of this news. No one is really sure why. Those who think of themselves as experts on the causes of crime confess to being nonplussed. The majority of them predicted that a prolonged economic squeeze could only lead to more crime. They are scratching their heads trying to figure out why the opposite is happening.

The figures are striking. Over the last five years, violent crimes dropped by 21%. Public disorder offences fell by 29%, even including the summer riots of two years ago and the tuition fees protests. Crimes involving weapons have diminished by 34% and homicides by 28%.

And yet crime continues stubbornly to fall. Over the past 20 years it has halved 54%↓ in England and Wales. It is down across the West but in Britain starkly so. In England and Wales crime has decreased by 8% in a single year. Vandalism is down by 14% and burglaries and vehicle crime by 11%. The murder rate is at its lowest since 1978; last year just 540 people were killed. Some less serious offences are vanishing too; antisocial behaviour has fallen from just under 4m incidents in 2007-08 to 2.4m.” = 40%↓

Looked at over a longer time scale, the change is even more dramatic:

A decline in England and Wales from 1995 to 2012 of:

Mugging                       = 26%↓
All crimes                     = 54%↓
Burglary                        = 62%↓
Vehicle-related theft     = 75%↓

 

Alcohol consumption in Britain is in decline

However, even though alcohol affordability has not changed much over the past decade, the average level of drinking has, particularly the level of drinking outside the home which has fallen considerably.

Whilst the level of drinking at home has remained more or less constant, drinking outside the home has decreased significantly, from over 700ml a week in 2002 to just over 400ml a week in 2010.

In 9 years = 43%↓

The fact that household consumption was stable even as public consumption declined suggests that this was not a case of drinkers substituting public locations for private, but rather a sign that the overall level of drinking has declined. Given this finding, we would expect that alcohol related violence would also have dropped over this period. Data on alcohol related crime is available from 2007 onwards, and this data confirms that alcohol fuelled crime has been on the decrease across all regions in England (UK Peace Index).

Illegal drug use in Britain is in decline From: The Guardian by: Denis Campbell, health correspondent, Thursday 27 January 2011:   

“Fewer people of all ages are taking drugs such as cannabis, cocaine and heroin, according to survey

Use of class A drugs such as heroin fell year-on-year from 3.7% to 3.1%.

A generational shift away from drugs may be under way, addiction experts suggested today, as figures showed that illegal substances were declining in popularity among all age groups.

Fewer people in England and Wales are taking drugs such as cannabis, cocaine or heroin, according to an NHS survey, which confirmed that use was down in every age group from 11- to 59-year-olds. Twenty percent of 16- to 25-year-olds used illegal drugs in 2009-10, down from 22.6% the year before, and well below the 29.7% recorded in 1996, which is a decline of 23%↓.
Similarly, the proportion of 11- to 15-year-olds who have ever used a banned substance has fallen from 29% in 2001 to 22% last year 2010, which is a decline of 24%↓.

The survey found 8.6% of those aged 16 to 59, or 2.8 million people, were using illicit substances in 2009-10 – the lowest ever figure since drug-taking trends were first monitored in 1996, down from 10.1% in 2008-09, 11.1% in 1996 and the record 12.3% in 2003-04, which is a decline of 30%↓ in 6 years.

The proportion using class A drugs such as heroin or crack also fell year-on-year (3.7% to 3.1%), as did those taking cannabis (7.9% to 6.6%).

The findings were contained in the NHS Information Centre’s annual survey of drugs misuse in England. It combines official sources of information on drug trends with extensive interviews with the public about their own habits to identify patterns of self-reported substance usage.”

Domestic Violence

Wife-beating has become less frequent: from 1994 to 2012, self-reported domestic violence has fallen by three-quarters in Britain = 75%↓

Source: The Economist 20 Jul. 2013

Australia
The crime drop in Australia seems delayed, beginning around 2001 where after motor vehicle theft led steep falls in burglary, theft and robbery:

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 495
Rick Brown
ISSN 1836-2206
Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, February 2015:

“For more than a decade, Australia has witnessed a sustained reduction in property crime. Yet relatively little is known about what may have caused this decline.

Since 2001, there have been significant declines in property crime in Australia. Indeed, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Recorded Crime—Victims data, between 2001 and 2009 motor vehicle theft declined by 57%↓, burglary declined by 49%↓ and other theft fell by 32%↓in 8 years.”

AUSTRALIA: Since a peak of 344 murder victims in 1999, the number has continued to decline, to 244 victims in 2011. = 29%↓

Source: The Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC)
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/facts/1-20/2012/2_profiles.html

 

Steven Pinker and Andrew Mack in “The World Is Not Falling Apart”:

The rate of Mexican homicide has declined in each of the past two years (including an almost 90%↓ drop in Juárez from 2010 to 2012), and many other notoriously dangerous regions have experienced significant turnarounds, including Bogotá, Colombia (a fivefold decline 80%↓ in two decades), Medellín, Colombia (down 85%↓ in two decades), São Paolo (down 70%↓ in a decade), the favelas of Rio de Janeiro (an almost 65%↓ reduction in four years), Russia (down 46%↓ in six years), and South Africa (a halving from 1995 to 2011= 50%↓). Many criminologists believe that a reduction of global violence by 50 percent in the next three decades is a feasible target for the next round of Millennium Development Goals

Change in Homicide Rate: Central & Eastern Europe (2002-2010)

Down from 2002 – 4.70     to   2010 –  2.30 = 51%↓

https://www.visionofhumanity.org/pdf/ukpi/UK_Peace_Index_report_2013.pdf

 

Estonia

The Economist Jul 20th 2013:

“Crime in Estonia has fallen precipitously. Since 1995, the country’s murder rate has dropped 2012 by 70%↓, and robbery and car theft have fallen almost as far. Even as the country entered a deep recession in 2009, which pushed unemployment up to 19%, the crime rate kept falling. But though the magnitude of this trend sets post-Soviet Estonia apart, its direction does not.”

 

International

Burglaries per 100,000 population in different regions, median, 2006 or latest

Rate (n=95)

The trend of burglary is declining in most countries.
At the same time differences between the countries are decreasing.

In only five of 25 countries (Belarus, Croatia, Cyprus, Mauritius and Slovenia)

Burglary had increased from 1996 to 2006.

Trend in burglary (n=25)        1996   2001   2006

Median                                     676     619     458

Trend                                        100       91       68  = 32%↓ in 10 years

Crime-statistics/International_Statistics_on_Crime…United Nations

 

Article: Exploring the international decline in crime rates
Andromachi Tseloni Nottingham Trent University, UK
Jen Mailley Loughborough University, UK
Graham Farrell Loughborough University, UK
Nick Tilley University College London, UK

Abstract: “This paper examines aggregate crime trends and variation around them from 1988 to 2004 for 26 countries and five main crime types using data from the International Crime Victims Survey. Multilevel statistical analysis is used to identify the main trends. Major drops in crime were experienced in many countries from the early to mid-1990s onwards. The current analysis estimates that between 1995 and 2004, the mean international crime incidence reductions were: 77.1%↓ in theft from cars, 60.3%↓ in theft from person, 26.0%↓ in burglary, 20.6%↓ in assault and 16.8%↓ in car theft. The study results suggest that, with the exception of burglary, all examined crime types fell by roughly the same rate across countries. The sample’s small number of countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia experienced even steeper reductions in burglary than occurred in Europe, North America and Australia.”

This data is from between 1995 and 2004, so it does not include the later decline in crime rates, to for example 2014 in which case some of the percentages would have been much higher.

 

Table Victimization by burglary; one year victimization rates for 2009/2010 (percentages) and  results of available previous surveys (1989-2005);
sources: ICVS 1989-2010:  ↓

	1989	1992	1996	2000	2005	2012
Canada	3.0	3.4	3.4	2.3	3.0	1.3
Denmark				3.1	2.7	3.6
Estonia		6.0	4.2	3.7	2.5	3.0
Georgia		2.5	3.6	2.6	7.1	0.5
Germany	1.3				0.9	1.2
Netherlands	2.4	2.0	2.6	1.9	1.3	0.8
Sweden		1.4	1.3	1.7	0.7	1.0
Switzerland	1.0		1.3	1.1	1.6	1.9
UK	2.1		2.8	2.7	3.3	1.5

 

Decline or incline of victimization rates from 1992/1996 to 2012
Canada          from 1992 – 3.4   to  2012 – 1.3 = 62%↓   
Estonia           from 1992 – 6.0   to  2012 – 3.0 = 50%↓
Georgia          from 1992 – 2.5   to  2012 – 0.5 = 80%↓
Netherlands   from 1992 – 2.0   to  2012 – 0.8 = 60%↓
Sweden         from 1992 – 1.4   to  2012 – 1.0 = 29%↓
Switzerland   from 1996 – 1.3    to  2012 – 1.9 = 46%↑
UK                 from 1996 – 2.8    to  2012 – 1.5 = 46%↓

Across the developed world, the crime wave that began in the 1950s is in broad retreat
(see chart 1).

A decline in the G7 countries from 1995 to 2010 of:

Robbery            = 22%↓

Homicide          = 33%↓

Vehicle theft     = 56%↓

 

Tales of the unexpected:  

As mentioned before: The crime decline was totally unexpected: “No one predicted crime would fall during the 1990s, in part because the crime rate had been steadily rising since the mid-1980s. The crime decline opposed the preceding trend and came as a great surprise to many because it clashed with a cultural milieu that came to expect rising crime.”

”The 1990s crime decline (in both personal and property crime) was so sharp, steep, widespread and so unexpected that by 2000, most criminologists were predicting that an increase was all but inevitable. Instead, after a brief pause, the crime fall again picked up steam, extending the longest and steepest crime decrease, undoing much of the recent history of escalating high crime rates in the United States.”  (Pew Research Center survey)

Some quotes:

“Steady decline in major crime baffles experts.” the New York Times on May 23, 2011.

“The rapid and mostly unexplained decline in crime rates that began in 1994.
Michael Andersen on May 6, 2014 in Land Use Connections

“Where have all the burglars gone?” The Economist 20 Jul. 2013

“The rich world is seeing less and less crime, even in the face of high unemployment and economic stagnation.” The Economist 20 Jul. 2013.

“No one seems to know why crime has been declining so steadily”.

“The great crime decline continues. No one is sure why”
The Economist  Aug 25th 2012 | LOS ANGELES

 “Here is some good news for nearly everyone. Crime is falling. Murder is down. Violent crime generally is down. Property crime is down. In fact, almost every category of criminality that you can think of is declining.
Here is the even better news. This is not a blip. The downward trend is now very well established and can be traced back over many years.
And here is the funniest bit of this news. No one is really sure why. Those who think of themselves as experts on the causes of crime confess to being nonplussed. The majority of them predicted that a prolonged economic squeeze could only lead to more crime. They are scratching their heads trying to figure out why the opposite is happening. The Guardian 28 Apr. 2013 – by Andrew Rawnsley

“The truth is that no one predicted America’s great crime decline, and no one has a definitive explanation for it.”
The Economist  Aug 25th 2012 | LOS ANGELES

By Heather Mac Donald: “From 2000 to 2012, the U.S. violent crime rate fell over 23 percent. Such an improvement in the social fabric would be cause enough for celebration. But the crime drop of the 2000s followed an even larger decline in the previous decade: 32 percent from 1993 to 2000. The 1990s crime drop (in both personal and property crime) was so sharp and so unexpected that by 2000, most criminologists were predicting that an uptick was all but inevitable. Instead, after a brief pause, the crime fall again picked up steam, extending the longest and steepest crime decrease since World War Two.

But just as crime was peaking in 1993, it reversed and went into freefall.

The fact that crime went down everywhere across America makes the phenomenon particularly puzzling, since crime is a local condition.

Criminologists opined in 2008 that the recession would trigger a crime increase. Instead, the recession accelerated the 2000s crime drop.

So what happened? No consensus exists. Favored explanations among criminologists include the collapse of the crack cocaine trade, a shrinking youth population, and a better job market, but none of these theories perfectly fit the data.” —Heather Mac Donald

Vanessa Barker in LAW & SOCIAL INQUIRY Volume 35, Issue 2, 489–516, Spring 2010:
“Difficult time explaining the decline. There is no consensus, no single most important cause of the crime decline.
Historical Context: Most commentators rely on the homicide rate as the key indicator of crime trends. The homicide rate is the most accurately recorded measure because (1) multiple agencies collect the data (2) homicides are unlikely to go unreported, and(3) the raw violence of homicide generates the highest public and official concern, increasing pressures to record it correctly.
The crime decline of the1990’s is noteworthy precisely because it showed a reversal of the preceding trend, and by wide margins. The scale of the crime decline was enormous. It impacted all crime categories and it did so in large numbers: violent and property crime fell by well over 30 percent, with some specific categories falling more. What is more, the1990’s crime decline was larger than previous crime drops. Although the crime rate had increased substantially since 1960, it had not been an unbroken climb as evidenced by the dips in the trend line. but the crime rate did not fall as hard or as long during these earlier periods. Between 1974 and 1976, for example, the homicide rate fell from 9.8 homicides per 100.000 population to 8.8 (a 10 percent decline); and between 1980 and1984, the homicide rate fell from10.2 homicides per 100.000 population to 7.9 (a 22.5 percent decline)(Bureau of Justice Statistics 2007). The crime decline is distinctive because of the steep-ness of its curve: 43 percent decrease in homicides, 38 percent decrease for all violent crime, and 37 percent decrease in property crimes – and its longevity: it lasted over 16 years (Data up to Spring 2010), much longer than the two to four years of earlier declines. Breadth of the decline: As mentioned above, the crime decline was widespread across every stratum of the United States. Today, crime rates of offending and victimisation are significantly lower for nearly every social, regional, and demographic group. First, crime rates fell in every region. Fewer criminal offences took place across the country as each region experienced major drops in homicide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, and auto theft.”

What is Behind the great Crime Decline?

Several theories have been offered up to explain the crime decline of the mid-1990s, but there is no consensus to what is the cause of the great crime decline:

1. Darwinistic principles: The process of organic evolution cannot explain the recent decline in human violence, because the timescale is much too short.
2. Increased imprisonment:
   “While the United States and Britain have dramatically increased their prison populations, others, like Canada, the Netherlands, and Estonia, reduced their incarceration rates and saw similar declines in violent crime. Same thing state-to-state in the United States; New York imprisoned fewer people and saw the fastest crime decline in the country.” by Zack Beauchamp Dec 11, 2013

So increased imprisonment doesn’t explain the decline in crime, because many European countries with far less imprisonment than, but similar crime drops to, the US.

3.The crack epidemic: The collapse of the crack cocaine trade is by many criminologists seen as the origin of the great crime decline. But because the collapse of the crack market happened so long ago, it is not a likely cause for the continued decline over the past two decades.
And this also fails in what is called the cross-national test because there never was a crack epidemic in Europe, and in Europe there was a similar crime decline of a great magnitude.    

4. The abolition of lead gasoline: The crime decline hypothesis that the effect of lead on children’s brains is that exposure to this chemical causes aggressive behaviour and cognitive delays. With the 1970 Clean Air Act, lead was removed from gasoline. The patterns of lead removal and crime decrease show some correlation, but correlation is no causation. Furthermore there is no relationship between lead poisoning and property crime.
   (The murder rate in Europe in the middle ages was up to 40 times as high as it is now {Eisner M.(2001). Modernization, self-control and lethal violence: The long-term dynamics of European homicide rates in theoretical perspective. British Journal of Criminology, 41, 618–638.} ;….. how much lead they had in their gasoline?).
5. The shrinking proportion of adolescents: The size of the youth population in relation to the total population has been declined because people are living longer. There were relatively les young men than before, and young men are the people who commit most crimes. It was suggested that’s why crime declined. But from the mid-1990’s to today, the period of the crime decline, there was no significant decrease in the number of young men in the United States. “As of 2013, the rate of violent crime victimization, as measured by the U.S. National Victimization Survey, is down 71% from its peak in 1994. Over this same period, the rate of violent crime victimizations for 12- to 24-year-olds—the age bracket most likely to commit crime—fell 78%. Many of these youths are moving to large cities, which is just where violence has subsided the most. Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles have experienced 76% and 90% decreases in the murder rate since 1992, respectively.”
6. Wider use of security measures in homes and businesses as a factor in reducing property crime: It is highly doubtful that the burglar alarms would be responsible for a 50% to 96% decline in theft.
7. Better policing: owever, it is far from sure if policing impacts crime rates as much as its proponents argue. The three cities that experienced large crime declines—Washington, D.C., New York City, and San Diego—pursued vastly different policing strategies. And better policing or does not apply in Europe, where policies vary widely. Smarter policing does not correlate with the timeline.
8. Economic growth: A careful study of Canadian crime trends makes clear that economic factors may not have played the role in the U.S. crime decline that many have suggested. Franklin Zimring: “Closer inspection showed that the timing of the Canadian decline fit perfectly with the timing of the declining in the United States. The extraordinary similarity of these trends in breadth, magnitude, and timing suggested that whatever was driving the decline in the United States was also operating in Canada. … But … Canada in the 1990s didn’t increase its imprisonment, didn’t hire more police per 100,000 population, and didn’t have anything close to the economic boom we enjoyed south of the border.”  Criminologists opined in 2008 that the recession would trigger a crime increase. Instead, the recession accelerated the 2000s crime drop. The world is seeing less and less crime, even in the face of high unemployment and economic stagnation.
9. Urban development: It is very doubtful that relatively superficial changes in the character of urban life can be associated with up to 75% drops in the crime rate in two decades.

Internationally, a decline in crime: homicide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, and auto theft, battering, child abuse, domestic violence, all have  declined. This has been documented in many countries since the mid-1990s. There is no general agreement on all the reasons for this decline. As has been discussed, several theories have been offered up to explain the crime decline of the mid-1990s, but these factors leave a substantial part of the crime decline unexplained. None of these theories perfectly fit the data.   

War is becoming rarer and less deadly.

Steven Pinker’s 2011 book The Better Angels Of Our Nature which gives a great amount of data that shows that the world has gotten more peaceful, and he found that, in the long run of human history, both war and other forms of violence are on a centuries-long downward slope.

Pinker summarizes: “the worldwide rate of death from interstate and civil war combined has juddered downward…from almost 300 per 100,000 world population during World War II, to almost 30 during the Korean War, to the low teens during the era of the Vietnam War, to single digits in the 1970s and 1980s, to less than 1 in the twenty-first century.” Here’s what that looks like graphed:

CREDIT: Steven Pinker/The Wall Street Journal

From 1952 – 23  to  2010 – 1 = 96%↓

”Though the recent increase in civil wars and battle deaths is real and worrisome, it must be kept in perspective. It has undone the progress of the last dozen years, but the rates of violence are still well below those of the 1990s, and nowhere near the levels of the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, or 1980s.The world is not falling apart.
The kinds of violence to which most people are vulnerable—homicide, rape, battering, child abuse—have been in steady decline in most of the world. Autocracy is giving way to democracy. Wars between states—by far the most destructive of all conflicts—are all but obsolete. The increase in the number and deadliness of civil wars since 2010 is circumscribed, puny in comparison with the decline that preceded it, and unlikely to escalate.” 

“The trend lines for genocide and other civilian killings, fortunately, point sharply downward. After a steady rise during the Cold War until 1992, the proportion of states perpetrating or enabling mass killings of civilians has plummeted.”

The number of civilians killed in these massacres has also dropped. Reliable data, collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, or UCDP, exist only for the past 25 years, and this period is so dominated by the Rwandan genocide that an ordinary graph looks like a tall spike poking through a wrinkled carpet. But when we squish the graph by using a logarithmic scale, we see that by 2013 the rate of civilian killing had fallen by an order of magnitude since the mid-1990s, and by two orders of magnitude since Rwanda.

The graph  uses a logarithmic scale, we see that by 2013 the rate of civilian killing after 1994 had fallen by 99%↓

 

Though comparisons to the cruder data of previous decades are iffy, the numbers we have suggest that the rate of killing civilians has dropped by about three orders of magnitude since the decade after World War II, and by four orders of magnitude since the war itself. In other words, the world’s civilians are several thousand times less likely to be targeted today than they were 70 years ago.

The worldwide rate of battle deaths (available through 2013) has also risen since its low point in 2005, mostly because of the deaths in the Syrian civil war.

While today, we see many more civil wars than wars between nations, civil wars tend to be less deadly than the latter.”
Steven Pinker’s 2011 book “The Better Angels Of Our Nature”.

 

 

The spread of democracy

The number of states that were democracies after the Cold War was roughly 40 percent. In 2014 a majority of about 60 percent of all states are democracies.  
From 1989 – 40%  to  2014 – 60% = 50%↑

Mortality rates in children younger than 5 years

“Progress has accelerated in recent years in many countries which have the highest rates of mortality.” Global Health Observatory (GHO) data

The 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) statistical compendium, gives the following numbers on global health:

Life expectancy at birth    (years)

Global (Both sexes) 1990 – 64 years     2011- 70 years

The global under-five mortality rate has declined by more than half, dropping from 90 to 43 deaths per 1,000 live births between 1990 and 2015. = 52%↓
(The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015)

The Developing World Has Experienced a Large Decline in Extreme

Poverty Rates

According to a new World Bank study from October, 721 million fewer people lived in extreme poverty ($1.25 a day) in 2010 than in 1981— a decline from 40 to about 14 percent of the world’s population suffering from abject want.
That is a decrease of 65%↓ https://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTPREMNET/Resources/EP125.pdf

Gender equality

“The cause of gender equality is making progress. In 2011, 86 percent of people in a diverse 21 country sample said that equal treatment on the basis of gender was an important value. The U.N.’s Human Development Report’s Gender Inequality Index — a comprehensive study of reproductive health, social empowerment, and labour market equity — saw a 20%↓ decline in observable gender inequalities from 1995 to 2011. IMF data show consistent global declines in wage disparities between genders, labour force participation, and educational attainment around the world.”    by Zack Beauchamp Dec 11, 2013

 

Tobacco / Nicotine addiction

Smoking is the leading cause of preventable death.

• Worldwide, tobacco use causes nearly 6 million deaths per year, and current trends show that tobacco use will cause more than 8 million deaths annually by 2030.²
• Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including nearly 42,000 deaths resulting from second-hand smoke exposure. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1,300 deaths every day.¹
• On average, smokers die 10 years earlier than nonsmokers.³
• If smoking continues at the current rate among U.S. youth, 5.6 million of today’s Americans younger than 18 years of age are expected to die prematurely from a smoking-related illness. This represents about one in every 13 Americans aged 17 years or younger who are alive today.¹

References

1. S. Department of Health and Human Services. The Health Consequences of Smoking—50 Years of Progress: A Report of the Surgeon General. Atlanta: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, 2014 [accessed 2015 Apr 7].
2. World Health Organization. WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, 2011. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2011 [accessed 2015 Apr 7].
3. Jha P, Ramasundarahettige C, Landsman V, et al. 21st Century Hazards of Smoking and Benefits of Cessation in the United States. New England Journal of Medicine 2013;368:341–50 [accessed 2015 Apr 7].

United States

Trends in Current Cigarette Smoking Among High School Students and Adults, United States, 1965–2011       Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

	Students* (%)	Adults** (%)
1965		42.4
1997	36.4	24.7
2011	18.1	19.0

Students from 1997 – 36.4   to   2011 – 18.1 is a decrease of 50%↓ Adults    from 1965 – 42.4   to   2011 – 19.0 is a decrease of 55%↓*Percentage of high school students who smoked cigarettes on 1 or more of the 30 days preceding the survey. Data first collected in 1991. (Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 1991–2011).**Percentage of adults who are current cigarette smokers (National Health Interview Survey, 1965–2011).

Trends in Adolescent Tobacco Use in the U.S.: a decline of 71%↓

https://www.hhs.gov/ash/oah/adolescent-health-topics/substance-abuse/tobacco/trends.html

Trends

In 2013, two percent of eighth-graders, four percent of tenth-graders, and nine percent of twelfth-graders reported smoking daily, compared with seven, 16, and 23 percent, respectively, in 1999. Twelfth-grade daily smoking peaked in 1997 at 25 percent, while daily smoking peaked in 1995 for eighth- and tenth-graders, at 10 and 18 percent respectively. (Figure 1) Some of the factors that may be associated with these long-term declines in smoking rates are increases in the level of students’ disapproval of, and their perception of risk connected with smoking, as well as adverse publicity on the tobacco industry; a decline in cigarette advertising reaching youth, together with an increase in antismoking advertising; and substantial price increases for cigarettes.– See more at: http://www.childtrends.org/?indicators=daily-cigarette-use#sthash.IFY13oUR.dpuf

A decline of smoking in the U.S. from the mid-1990’s:
  8^th Grade (13 to 14 years old)  1995 – 10.4  to  2013 – 1.8 is a decline of 83%↓  10^th Grade (15 to 16 years old)  1995 – 18.3  to  2013 – 4.4 is a decline of 76%↓  12^th Grade (17 to 18 years old)  1997 – 24.6  to  2013 – 8.5 is a decline of 65%↓ 

Great Britain
Public Health England report:

Figure-3: Youth smoking in England continues to decline

1996 – 13.0   to  2014 – 2.9 is a decrease of 78%↓

Australia 

Australian Government – Department of Health:

Recent figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that total consumption of tobacco and cigarettes in the March quarter 2014 is the lowest ever recorded, as measured by estimated expenditure on tobacco products:

• $5.135 billion in September 1959;
• $3.508 billion in December 2012; and
• $3.405 billion in March 2014

National Drug Strategy Household Survey detailed report 2013

On 17 July 2014, the AIHW released the 2013 National Drug Strategy Household Survey: key findings, which outlines the topline data for tobacco, alcohol and licit and illicit drugs.

On 25 November 2014, AIHW’s National Drug Strategy Household Survey detailed report 2013⁴ was released showing that there has been a significant decrease in daily smokers aged 14 years or older in Australia, falling from 16.6% in 2007, 15.1% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2013.

Table 1: Daily smokers aged 14 years or older from 1991 to 2013⁵

	1991	1993	1995	1998	2001	2004	2007	2010	2013
Total %	24.3	25.0	23.8	21.8	19.4	17.5	16.6	15.1	12.8#

From 1993 – 25.0   to   2013 – 12.8 is a decrease of 49%↓

As outlined in the table below, the smoking rates over the last 20 years, from 1993 to 2013, for daily smokers aged 18 years or older has halved, from 26.1% to 13.3%.

Table 2: Daily smokers aged 18 years or older from 1991 to 2013

	1991	1993*	1995	1998	2001	2004	2007	2010	2013
Total %	25.0	26.1	25.0	22.7	20.0	18.2	17.5	15.9	13.3#

*age group 20+ for 1993
From 1993 – 26.1   to   2013 – 13.3 is a decrease of 49%↓
# statistically significant change between 2010 and 2013

Other tobacco related findings from the NDSHS detailed report 2013 are:

• Young people are delaying commencing smoking – the age at which 14 to 24 year olds smoked their first full cigarette increased from 15.4 years of age in 2010 to 15.9 years of age in 2013.
• The proportion of 12-17 years olds who had never smoked in 2013 remained high at 95%.
• The proportion of 18 to 24 year olds who have never smoked increased significantly between 2010 and 2013, from 72% to 77% respectively.
• People aged 18 to 49 years of age were far less likely to smoke daily than they were 12 years ago.
• The average number of cigarettes smoked per week has decreased from 111 cigarettes in 2010 to 96 cigarettes in 2013.
• 16.5% of smokers (14 years or older) reported using unbranded tobacco in their lifetime with 3.6% using unbranded tobacco (half the time or more) in 2013, declining from 4.9% in 2010.
• Dependent children are far less likely to be exposed to tobacco smoke inside the home, (2013, 3.7% compared to 1995 at 31%).

Germany

Tobacco consumption from 1991 until 2013 Amount of averagely daily consumed cigarettes per year. 1991 – 401 to 2013 – 220 is a decrease of 45%↓

Source: Federal Statistical Office of Germany

Japan   Smoking in Japan, though historically less restricted by law than in many other nations, has significantly changed in recent years. Tobacco use has been in constant decline since 1996 and the decline has been accelerating in recent years. Consumption of cigarettes in 2012 was 197.5 billion sticks, roughly 57% of the peak figure in 1996 and a number last seen in 1968. In 2012, the adult smoking rate was 41.1%, 52.7% of Japanese men and 10.6% of Japanese women; this is the lowest recorded figure since Japan Tobacco began surveying in 1965 From 1996 to 2012 – a decrease of 47.3%↓

Canada

In December 2002, Statistics Canada published a report on smoking prevalence from 1985-2001. In that report they found from 1985 to 1991, prevalence of “current smoking” (which they defined as daily smokers and occasional smokers) declined overall, for both sexes and all age groups except for those aged 15 to 24. Even larger declines occurred from 1991 to 2001. While current smoking prevalence for youths did not significantly change from 1985 to 1994-1995, there was a significant decrease of 6 percentage points from 1994-1995 to 2001 (from 28.5% to 22.5% which = 21%↓decrease). Provincially, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia, experienced most of their declines in current smoking prevalence from 1994-1995 onwards. All of the provinces experienced some level of declines over the entire 1985 to 2001 period. Declines in daily smoking prevalence occurred for both sexes and all age groups over the entire 17-year time span, although youth smoking did not start significantly declining until the mid-1990s.

Israel

According to Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, the smoking rate in the Israeli adult population in 2009 was 20.9%, down from 34% in 2000.
Which is a decrease of 39%↓ in 10 years.

The examples and perspective in this article about the smoking rate, may not represent a worldwide view of the subject, but:

 

International

From the World Health Organisation:
18 MARCH 2015 ¦ ABU DHABI/GENEVA –

“A new study on global trends and projections for tobacco use published in The Lancet ahead of the WCTOH found that the prevalence of men smoking tobacco products has fallen in 125 countries between 2000 and 2010, and in 156 countries for women.”        (There are 196 countries in the world)
https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2015/trends-tobacco-use/en/

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The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015.

1.  Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

1993 – 1939 millions  2015 – 836 millions = 57%↓ 

Number of people living on less than $1.25 a day worldwide, 1990-2015 (millions)
Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015.

• Since 1990, more than 1 billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty.
• The proportion of undernourished people in the developing regions has fallen by almost half.
• One in seven children worldwide are underweight, down from one in four in 1990.
• Despite progress, almost half of the world’s employed people work in vulnerable conditions.
• By the end of 2014, conflicts had forced almost 60 million people to abandon their homes.

2. Achieve universal primary education

Considerable progress has been made in expanding primary education enrolment since 1990, particularly since the adoption of the MDGs in 2000.

The global number of out-of-school children has fallen considerably since 1990, although the pace of improvement has been insufficient to achieve universal primary enrolment by 2015. Currently, 57 million children of primary school age are estimated to be out of school, down from 100 million in 2000. Of these, 33 million are in sub-Saharan Africa, and more than half (55 percent) are girls.

Adjusted net enrolment rate for primary education, 2000 and 2015 (Percentage)
Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015

• The primary school net enrolment rate in the developing regions has reached an estimated 91 percent in 2015, up from 83 percent in 2000.
• The number of out-of-school children of primary school age worldwide has fallen by almost half, to an estimated 57 million in 2015, from 100 million in 2000. 2000 – 2015 = 43%↓ 
• Between 1990 and 2012, the number of children enrolled in primary school in sub-Saharan Africa more than doubled, from 62 to 149 million.
• In the developing regions, children in the poorest households are four times as likely to be out of school as those in the richest households.
• The literacy rate among youth aged 15 to 24 has increased globally from 83 percent to 91 percent between 1990 and 2015.

3. Promote gender equality and empower women

Much progress has been made towards women’s and girls’ equality in education, employment and political representation, but many gaps remain.

Since 1995, when the Beijing Platform for Action on women’s empowerment was adopted, the global average proportion of women in parliament has nearly doubled, growing from 11 per cent in 1995 to 22 percent in January 2015. 1995 – 2015 = 100%↑ Women in parliament have gained ground in nearly 90 percent of the 174 countries for which data are available for 1995–2015.

Proportion of seats held by women in single or lower houses of national parliament, 2000 and 2015 (Percentage). Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015.

• About two thirds of countries in developing regions have achieved gender parity in primary education.
• Globally, about three quarters of working-age men participate in the labour force, compared to
  half of working-age women.
• Today, women make up 41 percent of paid workers outside of agriculture, an increase from 35 percent in 1990.
• The average proportion of women in parliament has nearly doubled over the past 20 years, but still only one in five members is female.

4. Reduce child mortality

Substantial progress in reducing child mortality has been made, but more children can be saved from death due to preventable causes.

Focusing on newborns and reducing socioeconomic disparities are critical to further accelerate progress in child survival.

Under- five mortality rate, 1990 and 2015 (deaths per 1,000 live births)

Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015

• The global under-five mortality rate has declined by more than half, dropping from 90 to 43 deaths per 1,000 live births between 1990 and 2015. = 52%↓
• The rate of reduction in under-five mortality has more than tripled globally since the early 1990s.
• Measles vaccination helped prevent nearly 15.6 million deaths between 2000 and 2013.
• About 84 percent of children worldwide received at least one dose of measles-containing vaccine in 2013.
• Every day in 2015, 16,000 children under five continue to die, mostly from preventable causes. Child survival must remain the focus of the post-2015 development agenda.

5. Improve maternal health

Maternal survival has significantly improved since the adoption of the MDGs.

Southern Asia and Eastern Asia have made the greatest progress in reducing maternal mortality. Despite this progress, every day hundreds of women die during pregnancy or from childbirth-related complications.

Maternal mortality ratio, 1990 and 2013 (maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, women aged 15-49)
Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015

• Since 1990, the maternal mortality ratio has been cut nearly in half, and most of the reduction has occurred since 2000. 1990 – 2015 = 45%↓  
• More than 71 percent of births were assisted by skilled health personnel globally in 2014, an increase from 59 percent in 1990.
• In the developing regions, only 56 percent of births in rural areas are attended by skilled health personnel, compared with 87 percent in urban areas.
• Only half of pregnant women in developing regions receive the recommended minimum of four antenatal care visits.
• Just 51 percent of countries have data on maternal cause of death.

6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

The number of people newly infected with HIV continues to decline in many regions of the world.

Access to antiretroviral therapy has increased at a remarkable pace, averting millions of deaths. Unfortunately knowledge of HIV and HIV prevention remains low among young people.

Similarly, increased global attention to the devastating effects of malaria has produced significant results, and the burden of tuberculosis has declined, thanks to effective prevention, diagnosis and treatment.

HIV incidence rate (estimated number of new HIV infections per year per 100 people aged 15-49), 2001 and 2012
Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015

• New HIV infections fell by approximately  40%↓ between 2000 and 2013, from an estimated 3.5 million cases to 2.1 million.
• By June 2014, 13.6 million people living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) globally; ART averted 7.6 million deaths from AIDS between 1995 and 2013.
• Over 6.2 million malaria deaths have been averted between 2000 and 2015, primarily of children under five years of age in sub-Saharan Africa.
• Between 2000 and 2013, tuberculosis prevention, diagnosis and treatment saved 37 million lives.

7. Ensure environmental sustainability

Deforestation has slowed, but global greenhouse gas emissions continue their upward trend.

In recent years, the net loss of forest area has slowed, due to both a slight decrease in deforestation and an increase in afforestation. Deforestation, forest degradation and poor forest management release carbon into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change.

A continual rise in greenhouse gas emissions is projected to further warm the planet and cause long-lasting changes in the climate system, threatening severe and irreversible consequences for people and ecosystems.

Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), 1990 and 2012 (billions of metric tonnes, data for 2012 are preliminary)
Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015

• Ozone-depleting substances have been virtually eliminated, and the ozone layer is expected to recover by the middle of this century.
• Global emissions of carbon dioxide have increased by over 50 percent since 1990.
• In 2015, 91 percent of the global population uses an improved drinking water source, up from 76 percent in 1990.
• Since 1990, 2.1 billion people have gained access to improved sanitation, and the proportion of people practising open defecation globally has fallen almost by half.
• The proportion of the urban population living in slums in the developing regions fell from 39.4 percent to 29.7 percent between 2000 and 2014. = 25%↓

8. A global partnership for development

Official development assistance to least developed countries increased significantly over the MDG period.

Official development assistance has plateaued in recent years, after increasing significantly in the first decade of the new millennium. Imports from developing countries, especially from least developed countries, increasingly receive preferential treatment from developed countries.

Greater funding and innovation are crucial to the implementation of the post-2015 development agenda.

Official development assistance (ODA), from OECD-DAC countries, 2000–2013 (constant 2012 US$ billions)

Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015

• Official development assistance from developed countries increased by 66%↑ in real terms between 2000 and 2014.
• In 2014, 79 percent of imports from developing to developed countries were admitted duty free.
• The proportion of external debt service to export revenue in developing countries fell from 12 percent in 2000 to 3 percent in 2013.
• As of 2015, 95 percent of the world’s population is covered by a mobile-cellular signal.
• Only one third of the population in the developing regions use the Internet, compared to 82 percent in the developed regions.

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Internationally, a decline in crime has been documented in many countries since the mid-1990s. : homicide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, and auto theft, battering, child abuse, domestic violence, all have been declined:

Firearm homicide deaths (U.S.): 1993 – 2010    7.0 → 3.6 = 49% ↓

All non-fatal violent firearm crime (U.S.): 1994 – 2011  725.3 → 181.5 = 75% ↓

All non-fatal violent crime (U.S.): 1994 – 2011    7,967.3 → 2,254.2 = 72% ↓

Aggravated assault (U.S.): 1994 – 2011  = 75% ↓

Robbery (U.S.): 1994 – 2011  = 70% ↓

Violent victimisation at school from 1992 – 890  to  2012 – 250 = 72%↓

Physical abuse of children        from 1992 – 360  to  2012 – 160 = 56%↓

Sexual abuse of children           from 1992 – 220  to  2012 –   80 = 64%↓  

The victimization rate of 18- to 24-year-olds (U.S.) declined 80%↓
from 1993 to 2011

Property crime 1990–5088.5       2013–2730.7 = Down 46%↓

Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter 1990 –9.4       2013–4.5 = Down 52%↓

Rape, sexual assault and violence 1993 – 2014 a decrease of 72%↓
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. www.bjs.gov. 25-Nov-14

Burglary 1990 –1235.9       2013–610.0 = Down 51%↓

Larceny- theft 1990 –3194.8        2013–1899.4 = Down 51%↓

Motor vehicle theft 1990 –657.8       2013–221.3 = Down 66%↓

Homicides in the workplace (U.S.): 1994 – 2010  down by 51%↓

Serious intimate partner violence against females 1994 – 2011 = 72%↓

 Alcohol consumption  by underage persons U.S.(ages 12 to 20) has declined. 2002 – 2013, rate of heavy drinking, a decline of 40%↓.

 Alcohol consumption in Britain is in decline 2002 – 2010 = 62%↓

Fewer people are taking drugs such as cannabis, cocaine, or heroin, the use of illegal drugs U.K. 1996 – 2010 = down 33%↓.

Australia between 2001 and 2009 motor vehicle theft declined by 57%↓

Australia between 2001 and 2009 burglary declined by 49%↓

The rate of homicide has declined in Russia, down 46%↓ in six years.

In South Africa the rate of homicide has declined 1995 to 2011= 50%↓

Homicide Rate: Central & Eastern Europe 2002-2010 from 2002 – 2010 = 51%↓

Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) – Country Ranking: in 2012
105 countries had a decrease ↓ in Intentional homicides
Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s International Homicide Statistics database.

Decline or incline of victimization rates from 1992/1996 to 2012
Canada          from 1992 – 3.4   to  2012 – 1.3 = 62%↓   
Estonia          from 1992 – 6.0   to  2012 – 3.0 = 50%↓
Georgia          from 1992 – 2.5   to  2012 – 0.5 = 80%↓
Netherlands   from 1992 – 2.0   to  2012 – 0.8 = 60%↓
Sweden         from 1992 – 1.4   to  2012 – 1.0 = 29%↓
Switzerland   from 1996 – 1.3    to  2012 – 1.9 = 46%↑          
UK                 from 1996 – 2.8    to  2012 – 1.5 = 46%↓

World-wide battle deaths 1952 – 23/100.000  to  2010 – 1/100.000  = 96%↓

Rate of deaths in genocide and other mass killings from1995 to 2013 had fallen by 99%↓

The number of states that were democracies  
From 1989 – 40%  to  2014 – 60% = 50%↑

Decline in extreme poverty rates: 1981 – 2010 a decline of 65%↓

A decline in observable gender inequalities from 1995 to 2011 of 20%↓  

A decline in discrimination: the proportion of people worldwide who say they wouldn’t want to have a neighbour of a different religion dropped from 67 % to 48 % between the early 1990s and the mid-2000s, a decline of 28%↓

Tobacco / Nicotine addiction:
United States a decline of smoking in the from the mid-1990’s:
  8^th Grade (13 to 14 years old)  1995 – 10.4  to  2013 – 1.8 is a decline of 83%↓  10^th Grade (15 to 16 years old)  1995 – 18.3  to  2013 – 4.4 is a decline of 76%↓  12^th Grade (17 to 18 years old)  1997 – 24.6  to  2013 – 8.5 is a decline of 65%↓ 

Australia from 1993 – 2013,  a decrease of smoking rate of 49%↓

Germany tobacco consumption from 1991 – 2013  a decrease of 45%↓

Israel a decline of smoking from 1996 to 2012 – a decrease of 47.3%↓

The prevalence of men smoking tobacco products has fallen in 125 countries between 2000 and 2010, and in 156 countries for women.

Millennium Development Goals:

Extreme poverty and hunger 1993 – 1939 millions  2015 – 836 millions = 57%↓ 

The number of children without a primary school education worldwide has fallen by almost half, to an estimated 57 million in 2015, from 100 million in 2000. 2000 – 2015 = 43%↓ 

Gender equality and empower women, the global average proportion of women in parliament has nearly doubled, growing from 11 per cent in 1995 to 22 percent in January 2015. 1995 – 2015 = 100%↑

The global under-five mortality rate has declined by more than half, dropping from 90 to 43 deaths per 1,000 live births between 1990 and 2015. = 52%↓

Since 1990, the maternal mortality ratio has been cut nearly in half, and most of the reduction has occurred since 2000. 1990 – 2015 = 45%↓  

New HIV infections fell by approximately  40%↓ between 2000 and 2013, from an estimated 3.5 million cases to 2.1 million.

The proportion of the urban population living in slums in the developing regions fell from 39.4 percent to 29.7 percent between 2000 and 2014. = 25%↓

Official development assistance from developed countries increased by 66%↑ in real terms between 2000 and 2014.

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 “The mid-1990’s crime decline was steep, wide spread, and unexpected, undoing much of the recent history of escalating high crime rates in the United States. Moved by the sheer scale and breadth of the decline, researchers have been working hard to make sense of it. But no one, least of all researchers and experts, can agree on exactly why it happened.
In the United States where total violent crime fell over seventy percent between 1993 and 2011 in the United States where total violent crime fell over seventy percent between 1993 and 2011

Also in the mid-1990s, the UK began to experience dramatic declines across a wide range of property, personal and violent crimes, many falling by half or more (Office of National Statistics 2013). 

In Canada, crime rates dropped dramatically in the 1990s without mass incarceration, changes in policing, or economic expansion, factors that would call into question the general explanation for the United States
The sharp drops in Canada’s homicide and other crime has generally been remarkably similar to that in the US, while New Zealand experienced rather similar declines in property crime (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and other theft. In this context, the crime drop in Australia seems delayed, beginning around 2001 where after motor vehicle theft led steep falls in burglary, theft and robbery There is considerable evidence, from the International Crime Victims Survey in particular, that most European countries have experienced significant crime drops suggest the crime drop is more widespread than advanced countries and could perhaps be labelled as global.”

Graham Farrell: Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British   V5A 1S6, Canada
Crime Science 2013, 2:5  doi:10.1186/2193-7680-2-5

The extraordinary similarity of these trends in breadth, magnitude, and timing suggested that whatever was driving the decline in the United States was also operating in Canada and in many European countries

Many hypotheses are US-focused and fail when one uses cross-national comparative research. Since other countries did not have the same increase in police officers, or similarly extensive crack markets, as the United States but had a similar patterns of decline in crime rates.

What’s behind the decline in crime?

The sheer magnitude of the improvement, the scale and breadth of the decline, visible on both long and short time scales, and found in many domains, and in many countries;  including military conflict, homicide, genocide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, and auto theft, battering, child abuse, and domestic violence, all have been declined.
This is a pronounced overall trend that is identifiable as an international decline in crime, which embraced all serious crime categories.
The other remarkable fact is that this crime’s long-term decline seemed to occur rather abruptly in the mid-’90s.The great crime decline caught the experts by surprise. Not only did they fail to predict it, but even now they cannot explain it.
The magnitude of the decline stunned the experts.
Suddenly similar events were occurring in many countries. There, not only did crime drop, but other social indicators point to significant positive change.

During the years 1995 to 2015 a revolution took place which was hidden in plain sight, guided by ontological transformations.

Summary

During the years 1995 to 2015 a revolution took place that was hidden in plain sight, which had the following characteristics:
It wasn’t a limited national, but it was a Mondial phenomenon.

It wasn’t a slow change, but the crime rate suddenly went drastically down.

Almost every category of criminality was declining.

Alcohol consumption went in decline

Illegal drug use went in decline

Smoking was in decline in the from the mid-1990’s on

The rate of battle deaths in armed conflicts has strongly declined

Genocide and other civilian killings went drastically down.

 

There is no consensus to what is the cause of the great crime decline
It was a  rapid and mostly unexplained decline in crime rates

The crime decline was totally unexpected, it was totally unpredicted

It wasn’t just a small shift but a decline of about 50% to 70%

No one seems to know why crime has been declining so steadily

None of the suggested theories perfectly fit the data.

 

The extraordinary similarity of these trends in breadth, magnitude, and timing suggested that whatever was driving the decline in the United States was also operating in many other countries.
The pattern for individual countries was nearly always the same, there were international drops in all types of crime.

The kinds of violence to which most people are vulnerable have been in steady decline in most of the world.

The decrease in crime was parallel with the realisation  of  The Millennium Development Goals.

This sudden and total change on a global scale cannot be explained by conventional explanations, they are insufficient to explain the crime curve.

An alternative explanation would be that this global transformation was guided by ontological transformations. It would seem that in 1995 a critical point was reached for the activation of a new ontological level, which forms a phase in a total transformative process, which is suggested by many spiritual traditions.

=========================================================

 

                                                      Addendum

 

Here below some other statistics from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s International Homicide Statistics database.

Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) – Country Ranking 1995→
Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s International Homicide Statistics database.
http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5/rankings

Rank	Country	Value	Year	Value	Year
1	Honduras	42.10	1999	90.40	2012 = 115%↑
2	Venezuela	20.30	1995	53.70	2012 = 165%↑
3	Belize	17.20	2000	44.70	2012 = 160%↑
4	El Salvador	139.13	1995	41.20	2012 = 70%↓
5	Guatemala	32.55	1995	39.90	2012 = 20%↑
6	Jamaica	31.69	1995	39.30	2012 = 24%↑
7	Lesotho	45.80	2007	38.00	2010 = 17%↓
8	Swaziland	33.80	2012	33.80	2012 ———-
9	St. Kitts and Nevis	9.28	1995	33.60	2012 = 262%↑
10	South Africa	64.92	1995	31.00	2012 = 52%↓
11	Colombia	67.69	1995	30.80	2012 = 54%↓
12	The Bahamas	24.90	2000	29.80	2012 = 20%↑
13	Dem. Rep. Congo	28.30	2012	28.30	2012———-
13	Trinidad and Tobago	9.50	2000	28.30	2012 = 198%↑
15	Puerto Rico	23.34	1995	26.50	2012 = 14%↑
16	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	25.60	2012	25.60	2012 =====
17	Brazil	23.50	2007	25.20	2012 = 7%↑
18	Rwanda	23.10	2012	23.10	2012 ———-
19	Dominican Republic	12.72	200. 1	22.10	2012 = 74%↑
20	St. Lucia	14.70	2000	21.60	2012 = 47%↑
21	Mexico	16.92	1995	21.50	2012 = 27%↑
22	Dominica	2.90	2010	21.10	2010 = 628%↑
23	Nigeria	20.00	2012	20.00	2012 ———-
24	Greenland	19.78	1995	19.40	2009 = 2%↓
25	Equatorial Guinea	19.30	2012	19.30	2012 ———-
26	Botswana	18.40	2012	18.40	2012 ———-
27	Panama	14.08	1995	17.20	2012 = 22%↑
28	Namibia	22.59	1995	17.20	2012 = 24%↓
29	Guyana	14.97	1995	17.00	2012 = 14%↑
30	Myanmar	15.20	2012	15.20	2012 ———-
31	Cayman Islands	2.80	1998	14.70	2009 = 425%↑
32	Côte d’Ivoire	13.60	2012	13.60	2012 ———-
33	Grenada	14.80	2000	13.30	2012 = 10%↓
34	Turkmenistan	6.42	1997	12.80	2012 = 99%↑
35	Tanzania	12.70	2012	12.70	2012 ———-
36	Congo	12.50	2012	12.50	2012 ———-
37	Ecuador	14.60	2000	12.40	2012 = 15%↓
38	Mozambique	4.87	1999	12.40	2012 = 155%↑
39	Bolivia	7.00	2005	12.10	2012 = 73%↑
40	Ethiopia	12.00	2012	12.00	2012 ———-
41	Central African Republic	11.80	2012	11.80	2012 ———-
42	Nicaragua	15.25	1995	11.30	2012 = 26%↓
43	Sudan	11.20	2012	11.20	2012 ———-
44	Antigua and Barbuda	6.40	2000	11.20	2012 = 75%↑
45	Madagascar	11.10	2012	11.10	2012 ———-
46	Zambia	9.01	1998	10.70	2012 = 19%↑
47	Uganda	8.00	2003	10.70	2011 = 34%↑
48	Zimbabwe	10.60	2012	10.60	2012 ———-
49	Papua New Guinea	8.60	2000	10.40	2010 = 21%↑
50	Cabo Verde	6.40	2008	10.30	2012 = 61%↑
51	Togo	10.30	2012	10.30	2012 ———-
52	Haiti	5.10	2007	10.20	2012 = 100%↑
53	The Gambia	10.20	2012	10.20	2012 ———-
54	Djibouti	10.10	2012	10.10	2012 ———-
55	Comoros	10.00	2012	10.00	2012 ———-
56	Angola	10.00	2012	10.00	2012 ———-
57	Paraguay	9.70	2012	9.70	2012 ———-
58	Mongolia	13.90	2003	9.70	2011 = 30%↓
59	Peru	5.00	2000	9.60	2012 = 92%↑
60	Seychelles	9.50	2012	9.50	2012———-
61	Russia	11.60	2008	9.20	2012 = 21%↓
62	Gabon	9.10	2012	9.10	2012 ———-
63	Kyrgyz Republic	11.64	1995	9.10	2011 = 22%↓
64	Guinea	8.90	2012	8.90	2012 ———-
65	Philippines	7.99	1998	8.80	2012 = 10%↑
66	Costa Rica	5.30	1995	8.50	2012 = 60%↑
67	Benin	8.40	2012	8.40	2012 ———-
68	Guinea-Bissau	8.40	2012	8.40	2012 ———-
69	Kiribati	8.20	2012	8.20	2012 ———-
70	Somalia	8.00	2012	8.00	2012 ———-
71	Burkina Faso	8.00	2012	8.00	2012 ———-
72	Burundi	8.00	2012	8.00	2012 ———-
73	Iraq	8.00	2012	8.00	2012 ———-
74	Uruguay	6.40	2000	7.90	2012 = 23%↑
75	Kazakhstan	15.35	1995	7.80	2012 = 49%↓
76	Pakistan	6.93	1996	7.70	2012 = 11%↑
77	Cameroon	7.60	2012	7.60	2012 ———-
78	Mali	7.50	2012	7.50	2012 ———-
79	Barbados	7.52	1998	7.40	2012 = 2%↓
80	Chad	7.30	2012	7.30	2012 ———-
81	Eritrea	7.10	2012	7.10	2012 ———-
82	Lithuania	13.83	1995	6.70	2012 = 52%↓
83	Cambodia	3.55	1995	6.50	2012 = 83%↑
84	Afghanistan	4.00	2009	6.50	2012 = 62%↑
85	Moldova	9.10	1995	6.50	2012 = 29%↓
86	Kenya	4.00	2004	6.40	2012 = 60%↑
87	Ghana	6.10	2012	6.10	2012 ———-
88	Suriname	6.10	2012	6.10	2012 ———-
89	Lao PDR	5.90	2012	5.90	2012 ———-
90	Argentina	7.81	1995	5.50	2010 = 30%↓
91	Dem. People’s Rep. Korea	5.20	2012	5.20	2012 ———-
92	Belarus	9.34	1995	5.10	2010 = 45%↓
93	Estonia	17.07	1995	5.00	2011 = 71%↓
94	Albania	6.69	1995	5.00	2012 = 25%↓
95	Mauritania	5.00	2012	5.00	2012 ———-
96	Thailand	7.61	1995	5.00	2011 = 34%↓
97	Yemen	4.00	2000	4.80	2010 = 20%↑
98	Latvia	11.56	1995	4.70	2012 = 59%↓
99	United States	8.11	1995	4.70	2012 = 42%↓
100	Niger	4.70	2012	4.70	2012 ———-
101	Georgia	7.71	1995	4.30	2010 = 44%↓
102	Solomon Islands	4.30	2012	4.30	2012 ———-
103	Ukraine	8.62	1995	4.30	2010 = 50%↓
104	Tuvalu	4.20	2012	4.20	2012 ———-
105	Cuba	4.20	2012	4.20	2012 ———-
106	Iran	4.10	2012	4.10	2012 ———-
107	Fiji	4.00	2012	4.00	2012 ———-
108	Uzbekistan	5.05	1995	3.70	2012 = 27%↓
109	Samoa	3.60	2012	3.60	2012 ———-
110	Timor-Leste	2.40	2004	3.60	2010 = 50%↑
111	India	4.37	1995	3.50	2012 = 20%↓
112	Sri Lanka	6.70	2003	3.40	2011 = 49%↓
113	Egypt	0.70	2003	3.40	2011 = 386%↑
114	New Caledonia	3.40	2006	3.30	2009 = 3%↓
115	São Tomé and Principe	2.60	2006	3.30	2011 = 27%↑
116	Vietnam	3.30	2012	3.30	2012 ———-
117	Liberia	2.80	2007	3.20	2012 = 14%↑
118	Chile	3.20	2003	3.10	2012 = 3%↓
119	Palau	3.10	2012	3.10	2012 ———-
120	Nepal	2.53	1997	2.90	2011 = 16%↑
121	Vanuatu	2.90	2012	2.90	2012 ———-
122	Mauritius	2.20	1995	2.80	2011———-
123	Malta	1.27	1998	2.80	2012 = 120%↑
124	Senegal	2.80	2012	2.80	2012———-
125	Montenegro	2.90	2007	2.70	2012 = 7%↓
126	Bangladesh	2.50	2000	2.70	2012 = 8%↑
127	United Arab Emirates	2.60	2012	2.60	2012 ———-
128	Turkey	4.30	2003	2.60	2011 = 40%↓
129	Malaysia	1.92	1995	2.35	2012 = 22%↑
130	Norway	0.99	1995	2.20	2011 = 122%↑
131	Lebanon	3.20	2004	2.20	2010 = 31%↓
132	Morocco	1.90	1999	2.20	2012 = 16%↑
133	Tunisia	2.20	2012	2.20	2012———-
134	Syrian Arab Republic	1.99	1997	2.20	2010 = 11%↑
135	Azerbaijan	2.80	2000	2.10	2010 = 25%↓
136	Brunei	2.00	2012	2.00	2012 ———-
137	Jordan	1.30	2005	2.00	2011 = 54%↑
138	Cyprus	1.60	2004	2.00	2012 = 25%↑
139	Bulgaria	5.91	1995	1.90	2012 = 68%↓
140	Sierra Leone	2.30	2004	1.90	2012 = 17%↓
141	Armenia	3.60	1995	1.80	2012 = 50%↓
142	Israel	2.10	1995	1.80	2012 = 14%↓
143	Malawi	6.20	2000	1.80	2012 = 71%↓
144	Romania	3.34	1995	1.70	2012 = 49%↓
145	Greece	1.41	1995	1.70	2011 = 21%↑
146	Libya	1.70	2012	1.70	2012 =======
147	Bhutan	3.20	2000	1.70	2010 = 47%↓
148	Belgium	2.10	2000	1.60	2012 = 24%↓
149	Tajikistan	7.53	1995	1.60	2011 = 79%↓
150	Finland	2.85	1995	1.60	2012 = 44%↓
151	Canada	1.84	1995	1.60	2012 = 13%↓
152	Slovak Republic	2.38	1995	1.40	2012 = 41%↓
153	Macedonia	2.41	1998	1.40	2011 = 42%↓
154	Andorra	1.30	2010	1.30	2010======
155	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.80	2008	1.30	2011 = 28%↓
156	Hungary	2.87	1995	1.30	2012 = 55%↓
157	Serbia	2.40	2000	1.20	2012 = 50%↓
158	Croatia	3.56	1995	1.20	2012 = 66%↓
159	Poland	2.22	1995	1.20	2011 = 46%↓
160	Portugal	1.04	1996	1.20	2012 = 15%↑
161	Ireland	1.19	1995	1.20	2012 = 1%↑
162	Oman	2.60	2001	1.10	2011 = 58%↓
163	Qatar	0.91	1998	1.10	2012 = 21%↑
164	Australia	1.80	1995	1.10	2012 = 39%↓
165	United Kingdom	1.47	1995	1.00	2011 = 32%↓
166	Tonga	1.00	2000	1.00	2012 ———-
167	Czech Republic	1.71	1995	1.00	2012 = 42%↓
168	China	2.00	2002	1.00	2010 = 50%↓
169	France	2.31	1995	1.00	2012 = 57%↓
170	Austria	1.03	1995	0.90	2012 = 13%↓
171	Korea	0.90	2011	0.90	2011 ———-
172	Netherlands	1.94	1995	0.90	2012 = 54%↓
173	Italy	1.78	1995	0.90	2012 = 49%↓
174	New Zealand	1.09	1995	0.90	2012 = 17%↓
175	Saudi Arabia	0.94	1999	0.80	2012 = 15%↓
176	Germany	1.72	1995	0.80	2011 = 53%↓
177	Denmark	1.31	1995	0.80	2012 = 39%↓
178	Luxembourg	0.49	1995	0.80	2011 = 63%↑
179	Spain	1.04	1995	0.80	2012 = 23%↓
180	Algeria	2.00	2003	0.70	2011 = 65%↓
181	Sweden	0.94	1995	0.70	2012 = 26%↓
182	Macao SAR, China	6.07	1998	0.70	2010 = 88%↓
183	San Marino	0.70	2012	0.70	2012 ———-
184	Slovenia	2.24	1995	0.70	2012 = 69%↓
185	Switzerland	1.17	1995	0.60	2011 = 49%↓
186	Indonesia	1.10	2000	0.60	2012 = 46%↓
187	Bahrain	0.40	2003	0.50	2011 = 25%↑
188	Kuwait	0.40	2012	0.40	2012 ———-
189	Hong Kong SAR, China	0.60	2000	0.40	2012 = 33%↓
190	Iceland	0.00	1995	0.30	2012 = —%↑
191	Japan	0.54	1995	0.30	2011 = 44%↓
192	Singapore	1.46	1995	0.20	2012 = 86%↓
193	Monaco	3.10	2001	0.00	2008 =100%↓
194	Liechtenstein	3.01	1991	0.00	2012 =100%↓

From 1995 or the earliest available data after 1995, the Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) of the 194 countries

078 countries had a decrease ↓ in Intentional homicides
054 countries had an increase ↑ in Intentional homicides
062 countries data unknown or the numbers are the same

=========================================================

Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) – Country Ranking  → 2012
Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s International Homicide Statistics database.
http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5/rankings

Rank	Country	Value	Year	Value	Year
1	Honduras	61.40	2003	90.40	2012 = 47%↑
2	Venezuela	20.30	1995	53.70	2012 = 165%↑
3	Belize	34.60	2002	44.70	2012 = 29%↑
4	El Salvador	139.13	1995	41.20	2012 = 70%↓
5	Guatemala	46.50	2009	39.90	2012 = 14%↓
6	Jamaica	62.40	2005	39.30	2012 = 27%↓
7	Lesotho	45.80	2007	38.00	2010 = 17%↓
8	Swaziland	33.80	2012	33.80	2012 ———-
9	St. Kitts and Nevis	64.20	2011	33.60	2012 = 48%↓
10	South Africa	64.92	1995	31.00	2012 = 52%↓
11	Colombia	67.69	1995	30.80	2012 = 54%↓
12	The Bahamas	34.70	2011	29.80	2012 = 14%↓
13	Dem. Rep. Congo	28.30	2012	28.30	2012 ———-
14	Trinidad and Tobago	41.60	2008	28.30	2012 = 32%↓
15	Puerto Rico	23.34	1995	26.50	2012 = 14%↑
16	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	25.60	2012	25.60	2012 =====
17	Brazil	23.50	2007	25.20	2012 = 7%↑
18	Rwanda	23.10	2012	23.10	2012 ———-
19	Dominican Republic	25.60	2005	22.10	2012 = 14%↓
20	St. Lucia	26.20	2002	21.60	2012 = 18%↓
21	Mexico	22.80	2011	21.50	2012 = 6%↓
22	Dominica	12.90	2002	21.10	2010 = 64%↑
23	Nigeria	20.00	2012	20.00	2012 ———-
24	Greenland	30.10	2001	19.40	2009 = 36%↓
25	Equatorial Guinea	19.30	2012	19.30	2012 ———-
26	Botswana	18.40	2012	18.40	2012 ———-
27	Panama	22.60	2006	17.20	2012 = 24%↓
28	Namibia	22.59	1995	17.20	2012 = 24%↓
29	Guyana	27.30	2004	17.00	2012 = 37%↓
30	Myanmar	15.20	2012	15.20	2012 ———-
31	Cayman Islands	12.30	2004	14.70	2009 = 20%↑
32	Côte d’Ivoire	13.60	2012	13.60	2012 ———-
33	Grenada	15.40	2008	13.30	2012 = 14%↓
34	Turkmenistan	8.30	1997	12.80	2012 = 54%↑
35	Tanzania	12.70	2012	12.70	2012 ———-
36	Congo	12.50	2012	12.50	2012 ———-
37	Ecuador	17.70	2004	12.40	2012 = 30%↓
38	Mozambique	4.87	1999	12.40	2012 = 155%↑
39	Bolivia	7.00	2005	12.10	2012 = 73%↑
40	Ethiopia	12.00	2012	12.00	2012 ———-
41	Central African Republic	11.80	2012	11.80	2012 ———-
42	Nicaragua	15.25	1995	11.30	2012 = 26%↓
43	Sudan	11.20	2012	11.20	2012 ———-
44	Antigua and Barbuda	20.10	2007	11.20	2012 = 44%↓
45	Madagascar	11.10	2012	11.10	2012 ———-
46	Zambia	10.80	1999	10.70	2012 =   1%↓
47	Uganda	8.00	2003	10.70	2011 = 34%↑
48	Zimbabwe	10.60	2012	10.60	2012 ———-
49	Papua New Guinea	10.50	2003	10.40	2010 = 1%↓
50	Cabo Verde	15.10	2011	10.30	2012 = 32%↓
51	Togo	10.30	2012	10.30	2012———-
52	Haiti	5.10	2007	10.20	2012 = 100%↑
53	The Gambia	10.20	2012	10.20	2012 ———-
54	Djibouti	10.10	2012	10.10	2012 ———-
55	Comoros	10.00	2012	10.00	2012 ———-
56	Angola	10.00	2012	10.00	2012 ———
57	Paraguay	9.70	2012	9.70	2012 ———-
58	Mongolia	15.80	2005	9.70	2011 = 39%↓
59	Peru	11.60	2008	9.60	2012 = 17%↓
60	Seychelles	9.50	2012	9.50	2012———-
61	Russia	11.60	2008	9.20	2012 = 21%↓
62	Gabon	9.10	2012	9.10	2012 ———-
63	Kyrgyz Republic	20.10	2010	9.10	2011 = 55%↓
64	Guinea	8.90	2012	8.90	2012 ———-
65	Philippines	9.50	2010	8.80	2012 = 7%↓
66	Costa Rica	11.40	2009	8.50	2012 = 25%↓
67	Benin	8.40	2012	8.40	2012 ———-
68	Guinea-Bissau	8.40	2012	8.40	2012 ———-
69	Kiribati	8.20	2012	8.20	2012 ———-
70	Somalia	8.00	2012	8.00	2012 ———-
71	Burkina Faso	8.00	2012	8.00	2012 ———-
72	Burundi	8.00	2012	8.00	2012 ———-
73	Iraq	8.00	2012	8.00	2012 ———-
74	Uruguay	6.90	2002	7.90	2012 = 15%↑
75	Kazakhstan	16.70	1996	7.80	2012 = 53%↓
76	Pakistan	7.40	1998	7.70	2012 =  4%↑
77	Cameroon	7.60	2012	7.60	2012 ———-
78	Mali	7.50	2012	7.50	2012 ———-
79	Barbados	12.70	2006	7.40	2012 = 42%↓
80	Chad	7.30	2012	7.30	2012 ———-
81	Eritrea	7.10	2012	7.10	2012 ———-
82	Lithuania	13.83	1995	6.70	2012 = 52%↓
83	Cambodia	6.80	1997	6.50	2012 =   4%↓
84	Afghanistan	4.00	2009	6.50	2012 = 62%↑
85	Moldova	9.10	1995	6.50	2012 = 29%↓
86	Kenya	4.00	2004	6.40	2012 = 60%↑
87	Ghana	6.10	2012	6.10	2012 ———-
88	Suriname	6.10	2012	6.10	2012 ———-
89	Lao PDR	5.90	2012	5.90	2012 ———-
90	Argentina	9.20	2002	5.50	2010 = 40%↓
91	Dem. People’s Rep. Korea	5.20	2012	5.20	2012 ———-
92	Belarus	10.20	1998	5.10	2010 = 50%↓
93	Estonia	17.07	1995	5.00	2011 = 71%↓
94	Albania	49.90	1997	5.00	2012 = 90%↓
95	Mauritania	5.00	2012	5.00	2012 ———-
96	Thailand	10.00	2003	5.00	2011 = 50%↓
97	Yemen	4.70	2005	4.80	2010 =   2%↑
98	Latvia	11.56	1995	4.70	2012 = 59%↓
99	United States	8.11	1995	4.70	2012 = 42%↓
100	Niger	4.70	2012	4.70	2012 ———-
101	Georgia	9.00	2005	4.30	2010 = 52%↓
102	Solomon Islands	4.30	2012	4.30	2012 ———-
103	Ukraine	6.90	1996	4.30	2010 = 38%↓
104	Tuvalu	4.20	2012	4.20	2012 ———-
105	Cuba	4.20	2012	4.20	2012 ———-
106	Iran	4.10	2012	4.10	2012 ———-
107	Fiji	4.00	2012	4.00	2012 ———-
108	Uzbekistan	5.05	1995	3.70	2012 = 27%↓
109	Samoa	3.60	2012	3.60	2012 ———-
110	Timor-Leste	6.00	2007	3.60	2010 = 40%↓
111	India	4.50	2000	3.50	2012 = 22%↓
112	Sri Lanka	10.20	2006	3.40	2011 = 67%↓
113	Egypt	1.30	2008	3.40	2011 = 162%↑
114	New Caledonia	5.10	2007	3.30	2009 = 35%↓
115	São Tomé and Principe	8.30	2008	3.30	2011 = 60%↓
116	Vietnam	3.30	2012	3.30	2012 ———-
117	Liberia	4.80	2008	3.20	2012 = 33%↓
118	Chile	3.70	2007	3.10	2012 = 16%↓
119	Palau	3.10	2012	3.10	2012 ———-
120	Nepal	2.53	1997	2.90	2011 = 15%↑
121	Vanuatu	2.90	2012	2.90	2012 ———-
122	Mauritius	2.20	1995	2.80	2011 ———-
123	Malta	2.50	1999	2.80	2012 = 12%↑
124	Senegal	2.80	2012	2.80	2012 ———-
125	Montenegro	3.90	2008	2.70	2012 = 31%↓
126	Bangladesh	2.90	2006	2.70	2012 =   7%↓
127	United Arab Emirates	2.60	2012	2.60	2012 ———-
128	Turkey	4.90	2005	2.60	2011 = 47%↓
129	Malaysia	2.80	1998	2.35	2012 = 16%↓
130	Norway	0.99	1995	2.20	2011 = 122%↑
131	Lebanon	6.00	2008	2.20	2010 = 63%↓
132	Morocco	1.90	1999	2.20	2012 = 16%↑
133	Tunisia	2.20	2012	2.20	2012 ———-
134	Syrian Arab Republic	1.99	1997	2.20	2010 = 11%↑
135	Azerbaijan	2.80	2000	2.10	2010 = 25%↓
136	Brunei	2.00	2012	2.00	2012 ———-
137	Jordan	1.80	2006	2.00	2011 = 11%↑
138	Cyprus	1.90	2005	2.00	2012 =   5%↑
139	Bulgaria	5.91	1995	1.90	2012 = 68%↓
140	Sierra Leone	3.30	2008	1.90	2012 = 42%↓
141	Armenia	3.60	1995	1.80	2012 = 50%↓
142	Israel	3.60	2002	1.80	2012 = 50%↓
143	Malawi	7.70	2001	1.80	2012 = 77%↓
144	Romania	3.34	1995	1.70	2012 = 49%↓
145	Greece	1.90	1997	1.70	2011 = 11%↓
146	Libya	1.70	2012	1.70	2012 ======
147	Bhutan	3.20	2000	1.70	2010 = 47%↓
148	Belgium	3.10	2002	1.60	2012 = 48%↓
149	Tajikistan	8.40	1997	1.60	2011 = 81%↓
150	Finland	3.00	2001	1.60	2012 = 47%↓
151	Canada	1.90	1996	1.60	2012 = 16%↓
152	Slovak Republic	2.70	2003	1.40	2012 = 48%↓
153	Macedonia	3.40	2003	1.40	2011 = 59%↓
154	Andorra	1.30	2010	1.30	2010 ======
155	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.80	2008	1.30	2011 = 28%↓
156	Hungary	2.87	1995	1.30	2012 = 55%↓
157	Serbia	2.40	2001	1.20	2012 = 50%↓
158	Croatia	3.56	1995	1.20	2012 = 66%↓
159	Poland	4.90	1998	1.20	2011 = 76%↓
160	Portugal	1.80	1997	1.20	2012 = 33%↓
161	Ireland	1.80	2007	1.20	2012 = 33%↓
162	Oman	2.60	2001	1.10	2011 = 58%↓
163	Qatar	0.91	1998	1.10	2012 = 21%↑
164	Australia	1.90	2002	1.10	2012 = 42%↓
165	United Kingdom	2.00	2002	1.00	2011 = 50%↓
166	Tonga	1.00	2000	1.00	2012 ———-
167	Czech Republic	1.82	1997	1.00	2012 = 45%↓
168	China	2.00	2002	1.00	2010 = 50%↓
169	France	2.31	1995	1.00	2012 = 57%↓
170	Austria	1.03	1995	0.90	2012 = 13%↓
171	Korea	0.90	2011	0.90	2011 ———-
172	Netherlands	1.94	1995	0.90	2012 = 54%↓
173	Italy	1.78	1995	0.90	2012 = 49%↓
174	New Zealand	1.60	1997	0.90	2012 = 44%↓
175	Saudi Arabia	0.94	1999	0.80	2012 = 15%↓
176	Germany	1.72	1995	0.80	2011 = 53%↓
177	Denmark	1.67	199	0.80	2012 = 52%↓
178	Luxembourg	2.00	2001	0.80	2011 = 60%↓
179	Spain	1.40	2003	0.80	2012 = 43%↓
180	Algeria	2.00	2003	0.70	2011 = 65%↓
181	Sweden	1.20	2007	0.70	2012 = 42%↓
182	Macao SAR, China	9.70	1999	0.70	2010 = 92%↓
183	San Marino	0.70	2012	0.70	2012 ———-
184	Slovenia	2.24	1995	0.70	2012 = 69%↓
185	Switzerland	1.25	1999	0.60	2011 = 52%↓
186	Indonesia	1.10	2000	0.60	2012 = 45%↓
187	Bahrain	1.10	2009	0.50	2011 = 55%↓
188	Kuwait	0.40	2012	0.40	2012 ———-
189	Hong Kong SAR, China	1.00	2002	0.40	2012 = 60%↓
190	Iceland	0.00	1995	0.30	2012 = —%↑
191	Japan	0.60	2004	0.30	2011 = 50%↓
192	Singapore	1.46	1995	0.20	2012 = 86%↓
193	Monaco	3.10	2001	0.00	2008 =100%↓
194	Liechtenstein	3.01	1991	0.00	2012 =100%↓

Recent decline from maximum value since the mid-1990s to 2012 of the Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) of 194 countries

105 countries had a decrease ↓ in Intentional homicides
027 countries had an increase ↑ in Intentional homicides
062 countries data unknown or the numbers are the same